Climate change is widespread, rapid and intensifying, and some trends are now irreversible, at least during the present time frame, according to the latest much anticipated intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) report released on Monday the 9th of August 2021. Human induced climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. Scientist are also observing changes across the whole earth’s climate system; in the atmosphere, on the Ocean, ice floes, and on land, the evidence is irrefutable; greenhouse gas emission are choking our planet and placing millions of people in danger, global heating is affecting every region on earth, with many of the changes becoming irreversible. We must act decisively now to avert a climate catastrophe the U.N chief warns.
Many of these changes are unprecedented, and some of the shifts are in motion now, while some such as continued sea level rise are already irreversible for centuries to millennia ahead the report warns. But there is still time to limit climate change, IPCC experts say strong and sustained reductions in emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases, could quickly make air quality better, and in 20 to 30 years global temperature could stabilize. ‘’code red for humans’’ the U.N Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the working group’s report was nothing less than ‘’code red for humanity’’. He noted that internationally agreed threshold of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels of global heating was perilously close. We are at imminent risk hitting 1.5 degrees in the near term, the only way to prevent exceeding this threshold is urgently stepping up our efforts and pursuing the most ambitious path. ‘’ We must act decisively now, to keep 1.5 alive’’.
The U.N chief in a detailed reaction to the report, said that solutions were clear ‘’inclusive and green economies, prosperity, cleaner air and better health are possible for all if we respond to this crises with solidarity and courage’’ he said. He added that ahead of the crucial COP 26 climate conference in Glasgow this November, all Nations especially the advanced G20 economies needed to join the net zero emission coalition, and reinforce the promise on slowing down and reversing global heating ’’with credible, concrete and enhanced National Determined Contribution (NDC’s)’’ that lay out detailed steps.
Human Handiwork
The report, prepared by 234 scientist from 66 countries highlights that humans influence has warmed the climate at a rate that is unprecedented in the last 2,000 years. In 2019, atmospheric CO2 concentration were higher than at any time in the last 2 million years, and concentration of methane and nitrous oxide were higher than at any time in the last 800,000 years. Global surface temperature has increased faster since 1970 than in any other 50 year period over the last 2,000 years for example, temperatures during the most recent decade (2011-2020) exceed those of the most recent multi-century warm period, around 6,500 years ago, the report indicates. Meanwhile, global mean sea level has risen faster since 1990, than over any preceding century in at least the 3,000 years. The document shows that emission of gases from human activities are responsible for approximately 1.1c warming between 1850-1900, and finds that average over the next 20 years , global temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5c of heating.
Time is running out
The IPCC scientist warn global warming of 2 C will be exceeded during the 21st century unless rapid and deep reduction CO2 and other greenhouse gas emission occur in the coming decades, achieving the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement‘’ will be beyond reach’’. The assessment is based on improved data historical warming as well as progress in scientific understanding of the response of the climate system to human caused-emissions.’’ it has been clear for decades that the earth’s climate is changing and the role of human influence on the climate system is undisputed said IPCC working group 1 co-chair, Valerie Masson delmotte ‘’yet the new report also reflects major advances in the science of attribution understanding the role of climate change in intensifying specific weather and climate events .
Extreme Changes
The experts reveal that human activities affects all major climate system components, with some responding over decades and others over centuries. Scientist also points out the evidence of absurd changes in extremes such as heat waves, heavy precipitation, drought, and tropical cyclones and their attribution has strengthened. The added many changes in the climate system became larger in direct relation in increasing global warming. This include increase in the frequency and intensity of heat extremes, marine heat wave, and heavy precipitation, Agricultural and ecological droughts in some regions, the proportion of intense tropical cyclones, as well as reduction in Arctic sea ice, snow cover and permafrost. The report make clear that while natural drivers will modulate human –caused changes, especially at regional levels and in the near term, they will have little effect on the long-term global warming.
A Century of Change, Everywhere
The IPCC expert’s projects that in the coming decades climate change will increase in all region. For 1.5 c of global warming, there will be an increase in heat waves, larger warm seasons and shorter cold seasons. At 2 c of global warming, heat extremes are more likely to reach critical tolerance thresholds for Agriculture and health. But it won’t just be about temperature for example, climate change intensifying the natural production of water, the water circle. This brings more intense rain fall associated flooding as well as more intense drought in many regions. It is also affecting rainfall patterns,in high latitudes, precipitation is likely to increase, while it is projected to decrease over large parts of the sub tropics. Changes to monsoon rain patterns are expected, which will vary by regions the report warns. Moreover, coastal areas will see continued sea level rise throughout the 21st century contributing to more severe coastal flooding in low- lying areas and coastal erosion. Extreme sea level events that previously occurred once in 100 years could happen every year by the end of the century. The report also indicates that warming will amplify permafrost thawing, and loss of seasonal snow cover, melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and loss of summer Arctic sea ice. Changes in the ocean, including warming, more frequent marine heat waves, ocean acidification and reduced oxygen levels, affects both ocean ecosystem and the people that rely on them, and they continue throughout at least the rest of the century.
Magnified in Cities
Experts warns, that for cities, some aspects of climate change may be magnified, including heat waves, flooding from heavy precipitation events and sea level rise in coastal cities. Furthermore, IPCC scientists caution that low-likelihood outcomes such as ice sheets collapse or abrupt ocean circulation changes, cannot be ruled out.
Limiting Climate Change
‘’Stabilizing the climate will require strong, rapid and sustained in greenhouse gas emission, reaching net zero co2 emission limiting other greenhouse gases and air pollutants, especially methane, could have benefits both on the climate’’. Highlights IPCC working group co-chair PanmaoZhai. The report explains that from a physical science perspective, limiting cumulative carbon dioxide emission, reaching at least net zero CO2 emission along with strong reduction in other greenhouse gas emission ‘’strong, rapid and sustained reduction in methane emission would also limit the warming effects resulting from declining aerosol pollutants’’ IPCC scientist underscored.
The IPCC
The intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) is the U.N body for assessing the science related climate change. It was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Metrological Organization (WMO) in 1988 to provide political leaders with periodic scientific assessment concerning climate change, its implication and risk, as well as to put forward adaptation and mitigation strategies. In the same year the U.N General Assembly endorsed the action by the WMO and UNEP in jointly establishing the IPCC, it has 195 member states. Thousands of people all over the world contributes to the work of the IPCC. For the assessment report, IPCC scientist volunteer their time to assess the thousands of scientific papers published each yearto provide comprehensive summery of what is known about the drivers of climate change, its impacts and future risk, and how adaptation and mitigation can reduce those risks.